Baked Goods: Culinary Trend Mapping Report

For the past several years, consumers have been soothing themselves with all manners of baked goods, ranging from freshly made pies and Parisian macarons to decadent cookies and oozing lava cakes - all while enjoying new twists on old favorites as well as a more varied selection of baked goods and flavors.

Despite recent economic difficulties, baked goods generally remain an affordable indulgence, and one consumers can access in many places. The recession hasn't prevented sales of baked goods from growing, as the market has been pushed by a variety of drivers: convenience, premium ingredients, global flavor twists, wellness and nostalgia/comfort.
 
In Baked Goods: Culinary Trend Mapping Report, Packaged Facts and the Center for Culinary Development use the CCD signature Trend Mapping technique to profile seven sweet and savory baked good trends that provide fresh ideas for manufacturers and restaurant operators to enliven stale offerings, spruce up the bread basket and add excitement to both the baking aisle and freezer case.

The seven sweet and savory baked good trends appearing across the Trend Map® include:

• Stage 1: The Micropatisserie
• Stage 1: Alfajores
• Stage 2: Popovers & Gougres
• Stage 3: Specialty Frozen Desserts
• Stage 3: Better Baking Mixes
• Stage 4: Pretzel-mania
• Stage 5: Gone Gluten-Free

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MediaPost Publications Extreme Flavors Getting More Extreme 03/25/2011

Extreme Flavors Getting More Extreme by Karlene Lukovitz


Like a sprig of Douglas fir in that martini? How about a sea buckthorn berry tart?

As a Wall Street Journal article declared last year, American cuisine is "adrenaline cuisine." Increasingly, that means getting sensory thrills through "extreme and edgy" tastes that push the limits of hot, sweet, salty, sour and bitter, confirms a new Center for Culinary Development (CCD) culinary trend report, published by Packaged Facts.

And yes, while you're not likely to be seeing them in your frozen entrée or dessert sections in the near future, the Douglas evergreen and sea buckthorn -- a "superfruit" berry native to Asia and Europe -- are the latest extreme flavors establishing a foothold in North American cuisine, according to CCD.

Adventurous chefs and mixologists have been using the aromatic Douglas in meat dishes, sauces, drinks and desserts for a few years, and home chefs are now picking it up at farmers' markets -- part of a trend termed "foraging" or "wildcrafting," reports CCD.

The bright orange, intensely tangy sea buckthorn, meanwhile (acai is so 2010), is already hot in Canada, as it's being cultivated in Quebec and Saskatchewan. In addition to being served as a dessert, chefs use it as a substitute for common citrus fruits in foods such as sorbet and curd.

Other extreme or edgy foods/tastes making their way through the five trend stages described by CCD (Douglas and sea buckthorn are at the earliest, or first stage):

• Yuzu: an exotic Japanese citrus fruit with a simultaneously floral and tart flavor that's now being seen not only in fine dining restaurants but in specialty food markets, in products including soft drinks, sauces, condiments, savory snacks, confections and frozen desserts.

• Bitter brews: Italian amari spirits are trendy as pre- and post-dinner drinks, cocktail bitters are big in retro drinks, and craft-brewed "hoppy" India Pale Ales are increasingly popular. (Example of the last: New Belgium's quickly growing Ranger IPA label.) Like yuzu, CCD puts bitter brews at the stage two trend level.

• Tamarind: A key ingredient in Pad Thai, and now increasingly found in many specialty retail foods and pan-Asian and pan-Latin chain restaurants (putting it at stage 3).

• Chocolate and chile: This hot-and-sweet combo sensation is well along the trend curve (stage four), and already appearing in recipes in popular women's magazines. That makes it ripe for inclusion in packaged baked goods, mainstream drink mixes and confections, and in-store bakery offerings, says CCD.

• Wasabi: This hot, horseradish-like plant is already more or less mainstream (stage five). It's become a common ingredient in mashed potatoes, hummus, dressings and other dishes, and is also showing up in snacks and comfort foods, according to CCD.

MediaPost Publications Extreme Flavors Getting More Extreme 03/25/2011

Health, Budget Concerns Will Drive Food Flavor and Ingredient Market in 2011

Health, Budget Concerns Will Drive Food Flavor and Ingredient Market in 2011

New York, January 11, 2011 — Consumer thriftiness and health-consciousness will continue to exert a notable influence over the food and beverage ingredient and flavor trends to emerge in 2011, according to Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2011, the eighth edition of the annual series by market research publisher Packaged Facts.

"Heading into 2011, consumers are growing evermore weary of economic and nutritional health gloom and doom. Many have spent the last few years reinventing their financial and employment lives, and are now starting to focus more emphasis on their overall wellbeing and happiness in a way that is reflective of their values, being more pragmatic and deliberate in making decisions about how to spend both their time and their resources," says Don Montuori, publisher of Packaged Facts.

Packaged Facts believes food marketers, from the retail and foodservice sectors, will take that consumer mindset to heart in 2011. Some of the key trends Packaged Facts forecasts to hit it big in 2001 are:

• Flavors From Around the Globe – Ethnic food will remain a bright spot for foodservice and retailers, providing variety and interest without taxing smaller food budgets. The growing presence of food trucks, with their varied ethnic fare at reasonable prices, will bring this national trend home to the local level.

• Sustainability Trumps Local, Organic and Natural – Local, organic and natural foods will more often be connected with eco–friendliness and a more holistic lifestyle approach to eating that promotes sustainability. As a result, Packaged Facts predicts that there will be greater use of natural, organic, local and antibiotic and hormone–free ingredients at quick serve restaurants (QSRs) and fast casual restaurants in 2011. At retail, the popularity of private label organic products is anticipated to continue while growth in directly marketed local and organic produce, meats and locally processed foods sold via farmers’ markets and community-supported agriculture (CSA) is anticipated.

• Wellness Overhaul – Packaged Facts anticipates that food will get more attention as the foundation of health, and wellness activities will be better integrated into overall lifestyle. Growing recognition that digestive health is a key link in promoting overall good health will help drive sales of yogurt and other foods containing probiotics, but gluten-free foods will likely show signs of slowing down after a year of explosive growth that some might consider to be a fad.

• Plethora of Produce – Vegetables, more so than fruit, will take on added importance in 2011 as they move to the center of the plate. More fine–dining restaurants are starting to focus on vegetables as the main attraction, with either no accompanying meat, or used sparingly, as a condiment to accentuate flavor. Look for considerable menu experimentation with taste palates developing to savor a broad array of produce, with the likes of turnips, parsnips, black and purple kale, broccoli, spigarello, Romanesco, eggplant, celeriac, and sunchokes becoming more commonplace.

• Flavor & Ingredient Crossovers – A key trend will be even more two–directional crossover of savory ingredients into sweet foods and sweet ingredients into savory foods. For example, Packaged Facts expects the use of olive oil to extend into a wide range of desserts and sweet goods including ice cream and gelato, cake and muffins.

• Satisfying Sweets – Packaged Facts anticipates that agave will surrender some of its sweetening prominence to less exotic but always special honey as stevia still gains ground at a slower pace. Figs, pears, cherries and blackberries look likely to be the most popular fruits, along with the superfruit combination of blueberry and pomegranate. America’s appreciation of artisanal and retro desserts is expected to continue in 2011 with home–made pie and ice cream showing a great deal of creativity.

Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2011, 8th Edition highlights predictions for the key drivers that will affect the U.S. food and beverage industry including rising food prices, consumer desire to take control and remain tight–fisted, actual vs. perceived thrift, government and industry pressure for a healthier diet and more focus on pragmatic lifestyle choices to promote happiness and well being. For further information, please visit: http://www.packagedfacts.com/Food-Flavor-Ingredients-2706877/.

About Packaged Facts—Packaged Facts, a division of MarketResearch.com, publishes market intelligence on a wide range of consumer market topics, including consumer goods and retailing, foods and beverages, demographics, pet products and services, and financial products. Packaged Facts also offers a full range of custom research services. To learn more, visit: www.packagedfacts.com. Follow us on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter.

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A sweet finish to the year

Christmas is a lucrative time for local chocolatiers as they continue to weather the economy's downturn.

By JACKIE CROSBY, Star Tribune

Last update: December 23, 2010 - 10:08 PM

The machines were humming this week inside the sprawling factory at Abdallah Candies in Burnsville. A worker gently sprinkled sea salt onto dark chocolate pieces as they moved along a conveyor belt, while two women on a nearby line stamped "B's" into the warm chocolate that enveloped a vanilla-butter-cream filling.
"They're going out the door as fast as we can make them," said CEO and owner Steven Hegedus, the fourth generation to run the company, as he surveyed the 65,000-square- foot plant. "Business is brisk."
Christmas makes up 35 to 40 percent of annual sales at Abdallah, which manufactures chocolate candies and confections for more than 6,000 gift and specialty food stores across the country, as well as Lunds and Byerly's locally. The company specializes in "everyday chocolate," generally priced lower than most handmade artisan brands, but higher than, say, Hershey's.
If America's sweet tooth provides insight into how consumers feel about the economy, chocolatiers such as Hegedus have some hope for the year ahead.
"We put resources into infrastructure so that when the economy picked up, we'd be poised to be at the next level of production," he said. "That's exactly what's happening now. The recession's not over, but it's picking up."
The $17.3 billion U.S. chocolate industry has expanded, but hasn't regained its prerecession pace of growth, according to consumer market research firm, Packaged Facts. Sales have been resilient mainly because the percentage of Americans who buy chocolate -- 3 out of 4 -- has remained steady.
Industry experts attribute that relative vigor to what economists call the "lipstick factor," where sales of small luxury items stay strong during times of economic hardship because of their ability to lift spirits.
Nonetheless, the recession has forced a handful of chocolate makers in the Twin Cities to become more nimble, and to think of their business in new ways.
Brian McElrath and Christine Walthour, a husband-and-wife team who own wholesaler B.T. McElrath, have completed shifted their business model. A couple of years ago, they manufactured mostly filled chocolates. But in 2009 they boosted production of high-quality chocolate bars.

Mmm, Chocolate

Seemingly recession-proof, chocolate’s appeal continues to evolve with the times.

By Joanna Cosgrove, Nutraceuticals World, Published December 9, 2010

“Over the last decade chocolate makers have been responding to consumers’ drive to live healthier lifestyles,” commented Packaged Facts’ Curtis Vreeland, a seasoned chocolate industry analyst and author of the report. “Their efforts have brought us portion-controlled packaging, sugar-free sweets, heart-healthy dark chocolate and fortified confections of unbelievable variety and veracity. This trend should continue, as healthier confectionery offers consumers an irresistible package: health and wellness, plus indulgence and a convenient serving modality.”
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Food Flavor and Ingredients Outlook 2010, 7th Edition

While Wall Street claims that the recession has ended, Main Street will continue to face financial challenges through most, if not all, of 2010. Frugal behaviors consumers adopted in 2009 are becoming engrained and reflect a new normal when it comes to shopping, dining and eating preferences for the foreseeable future. What constitutes value is being redefined and consumers are starting to make different choices than in years past that will drive their food and beverage purchases. Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2010 describes the trends that Packaged Facts predicts will influence the flavors and ingredients that will drive food and beverage selection at retail and in restaurants and other foodservice establishments in the coming year and beyond.

 

The 2010 edition of this annual report (which was first published in 2004) includes coverage of eight primary focus areas impacting flavor and ingredient trends. To assess the shift in trends over time, predictions for last year are summarized along with Packaged Facts’ expectations for 2010 in relation to:

• International Flavors
• Redefining Healthy Eating
• Local Food Production and Sourcing
• Reenacted Flavors
• Savory Trends
• Sweet Trends

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Confections and Dessert: Culinary Trend Mapping Report

There’s a new landscape of treats that are at once sophisticated yet comforting. This report explores four overarching themes that are driving trends and new product development in confections and desserts:

1. Nostalgia - Sweets are connected to positive childhood memories, including family celebrations and holidays. Recent innovative desserts often take familiar American flavors of the past (malt, buttermilk, vanilla, caramel) and diner-classic forms (sundaes, shakes, floats, pie) and re-interpret them in new ways.

2. Indulgence - In difficult economic times, Americans seek out small pleasures they can afford - and sweets are one of them. We’re seeing interesting combinations of indulgent flavors.
3. Flavor adventure - Americans may enjoy traditional flavors, but they’re opening up to new taste combinations as well, at once driven by and propelling their increased enthusiasm for global cuisine. In the dessert arena, this trend is manifested in the popularization of savory sweets with international flavors and textures.
4. Artisan appeal - During a time when many Americans are more preoccupied than ever with eating food that is local, sustainable or organic, consumers continue to develop an appreciation of artisan producers and products. Artisan producers use higher-quality ingredients, more skill- and labor-intensive preparation methods, and traditional product formats that make finesse and freshness de rigueur. These appeal to consumer desires for authenticity - and stirs nostalgic cravings for products from a time before the mass industrialization of sweets.

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