QSR Magazine: What Happened to Table Service?

What Happened to Table Service?

The recession served casual-dining chains some serious blows. But quick serves and fast casuals shouldn’t get too confident. 

In many cases, it’s a different consumer out there today deciding where to dine when the urge hits. Throughout the recession, full-service restaurants offered so many fire-sale bargains that those little affected by the economy could almost feel guilty for practically stealing meals when they would have just as willingly paid regular price.

The meal deals that spelled survival for sit-down restaurants were like Black Friday to consumers, says David Morris, author of the report Dinner Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market for Packaged Facts. The upshot was giddy guests (higher guest traffic) with lower guest checks. Great for the consumer, but depressing for operators who are now trying to unwind themselves from the spiral.
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Social Media and Technology in the U.S. Foodservice Industry: Trends and Opportunities for an Emerging Market : Packaged Facts

The convergence of social media, mobile devices and consumer lifestyles is ushering in a new era of restaurant-consumer interaction, opening new doors for restaurant operators to build customer relationships and sales opportunities, according to Packaged Facts’ Social Media and Technology in the U.S. Foodservice Industry: Trends and Opportunities for an Emerging Market.
Tethered by the Internet, restaurant operators are increasingly interacting with restaurant consumers in real-time—at work, at home or in mid stride. This provides significant opportunity to shape consumer food choices not only as they are being made, but also in proximity to a restaurant seeking that consumer’s business.

This Packaged Facts report provides the insight and analysis foodservice market participants need to understand and leverage social media and technology platforms to enhance their bottom lines. The analysis includes the following:

* Social Networking Platforms
* Consumer Review Platforms
* Food Blogs And Food Photography
* Technologic Dining In Action
* Smartphones And Applications
* Online Ordering Platforms
* Anatomy Of The Mobile Restaurant Ordering User
* Anatomy Of The Urban Diner
* Using Social Media To Effect: Restaurant Case Studies

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Boulder's Evol, famous for burritos, turning attention toward other frozen foods - Boulder Daily Camera

Boulder's Evol, famous for burritos, turning attention toward other frozen foods - Boulder Daily CameraBy Alicia Wallace Camera Business Writer
Posted: 12/26/2010 09:30:00 PM MST

Jason Espinoza checks the seal on the burrito packaging and racks the burritos for the refrigerator at Evol Foods in Boulder on Dec. 9. ( MARK LEFFINGWELL )

If officials behind a Boulder-based frozen burrito company get their way, the Evol empire will spread in 2011 and do so in a very cold -- yet, brightly lit -- place.

A year after the Boulder-bred Phil's Fresh Foods gained some investors and rebranded itself as Evol Burritos (not sinister, it's 'love' spelled backwards), the company changed its name once again. Now operating as Evol Foods, the local manufacturer is launching a line of frozen gluten-free bowl entrees and has grander plans to tackle other sides of the frozen food market, founder Phil Anson said.

"It evolved really quickly into a big overall convenience brand," Anson said. "Over time, we'll be in entrees and you'll see us go into other categories that are as big or bigger than entrees."

What those could be, Anson's not saying right now, just that Evol Foods will broaden its offerings more in the spring and summer.

Although he's staying mum, Anson expressed confidence in Evol Foods' ability to gain a foothold in the sector. Consumers are looking for something fresh, new and different, he claimed.

"That's why we launched Evol," he said. "We really wanted to create a lifestyle brand that people can connect with."

Anson said he also sees a big gap on the meat front, especially in the natural, organic, active and health-focused arena.

"Just because people want natural and organic products doesn't mean they don't want meat," he said.

Evol Foods is expanding in a sector that had "strong" growth during the past five years, but also experienced a slowdown this year.

During 2006 to 2010, sales in the frozen foods and beverages channel increased $10 billion, or 21.7 percent, for a compound annual growth rate of 5 percent, according to an industry report released this month by Packaged Facts. The projected sales gain of 1.7 percent, or $900 million, for 2010 would be the weakest during the period; although, sales gains in the preceding
Jason Espinoza checks the seal on the burrito packaging and racks the burritos for the refrigerator at Evol Foods in Boulder on Dec. 9. ( MARK LEFFINGWELL )
years could have been driven by higher prices, officials for the market research firm said in the report.

While some consumer spending has contracted during the economic downturn, frozen foods have been affected to a lesser extent, according to the report.

"The new economic reality feeds two opposing trends in consumer goods markets, including frozen foods: premiumization (upscaling) and cutting back (downsizing)," Packaged Facts officials wrote in the report. "Rather than canceling each other out, these two trends interact in the face of slow economic recovery as consumers juggle how to get the most out of less money or less spending."

Evol Foods' sales multiplied in 2010, Anson said, noting the company should finish the year up 200 percent from 2009.

The brand's distribution also exploded. As Phil's Fresh Foods, the burritos were sold in 700 stores. Now, as Evol, they are sold in 5,000 to 6,000 locations, he said.

Anson said the key to future expansions -- in sales, products and areas such as food service -- will include his "foodie" mindset and keeping on top of the variety of food-related trends.

"Monitoring what's happening from white tablecloth restaurants to mobile eating, my ears are attuned to all of those things," he said.

New Research: Dinner Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market

Packaged Facts estimates that dinner daypart restaurant sales dropped 5% to $174 billion in 2009, and is forecasted to drop another 3% in 2010. But all is not lost, Packaged Facts research indicates a spending renaissance is already underway. By combining investment-grade industry analysis with key trend analysis, Dinner Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market not only helps foodservice industry participants address challenges unique to the dinner daypart but also helps participants contour their strategies to meet consumers’ evolving needs. By providing insight on the dinnergoer’s decision-making process, this report provides direction on how and why the consumer decides on a specific restaurant from which to obtain dinner, and how and why that consumer decides what to order from the menu. Selection factors are analyzed according to the following categories: convenience; dinner menu items; meal cost thresholds; dine-in and takeout partner; menu positioning and advertising; health positioning; and bundled offers. More Information>> Research Features: “Share of stomach” restaurant dinner sales analysis, which includes 5-year sales trends for the fast food/quick-service restaurant and full-service restaurant segments, with forecasts for 2010 and 2011. Guest traffic frequency analysis of leading dinner-centric restaurant brands, giving a directional perspective on current sales trends. Trended analysis of demographic dinner daypart expenditures, including 4-year sales historical sales trends and spending according to key demographics, such as age, income, region, and race/ethnicity. Thorough psychographic analysis of Budgeters, Alcohol Indulgers and Healthy Eaters, key psychographic groups shaping the dinner daypart. The report also conducts trend analysis on key dinner-centric restaurant brands, including menu strategies and new menu item introductions, core users; snacking tendencies; food, diet and health attitudes; as well as trends sales metrics. We focus on recession-driven responses and menu strategies taking the brands into 2011. Coverage extends to fast food/QSR, coffeehouse, smoothie shop, ice cream shop, family restaurant, casual restaurant, and fine dining restaurant segments; as well as prepared foods segments at convenience stores/gas stations and grocery stores/supermarkets. More Information>>

Dinner Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market is part of Packaged Facts' new Foodservice Market Insights collection. Additional titles include: Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market Dinner Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market Snack and Dessert Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market Prepared Food and Ready-to-Eat Foods at Retail: The New Competition to Foodservice The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trends, Momentum and Migration The insights you need, all in one collective series from Packaged Facts. Download our Foodservice Market Insights brochure and get the full details on data methodology, foodservice consumer perspective and analysis, and more. View the brochure See sample pages

"Students are 60% more likely than average to have dinner foodservice at a grocery store/supermarket & 40% more likely to have dinner at a convenience store/gas station." - Dinner Trends in Foodservice Market Study

Breakfast Trends: Fierce competition sparks innovation

Think a restaurant breakfast is just an Egg McMuffin consumed mid-commute? Think again. Breakfast is being reinvented chefs and industry innovators, many of whom are interested in offering an alternative to the typical diner or quick-serve-restaurant morning meal. Though the majority of breakfast business is done on the go, these trendsetters are still making an impact, serving upgraded breakfast sandwiches and mixing organic ingredients and global flavors into the most important meal of the day.

Fact is, breakfast isn’t just hot: it’s cold, eaten in the form of whole grain cereal and customized granola; it’s gourmet, made into elaborate artisan breakfast sandwiches; it’s a beverage, served all day in the guise of salad with poached eggs and bacon or dessert waffles. Breakfast is so much more than it used to be—and it’s more popular than ever in foodservice, despite the economic downturn.

Fierce competition in every sector for the breakfast dollar is pushing innovation in today’s breakfast foods, along with a number of key drivers exemplified in the report’s trend profiles:


Artisan Breakfast: These traditional breakfast dishes are made by hand, using the freshest ingredients and incorporating global flavor twists.

Third Wave Coffee: Coffee enthusiasts are going beyond espresso to reinvent this ancient caffeinated beverage, creating a superlative cup of Joe that’s brewed with care from only the best beans.

New Whole Grains: As consumers are looking for gluten-free alternatives and better-tasting, healthful breakfast options, whole grain cereals and breakfast pastry are diversifying beyond whole wheat.
Waffles Gone Wild: Waffles can be used as a carrier or simply solo, and are taking on new savory and sweet forms everywhere from fine dining to street food.
Breakfast Pizza: America’s favorite savory pie gets a breakfast twist, topped with ingredients such as eggs, bacon--and even fruit!
Eggs All Day: Eggs are a flexible protein that can be healthful or decadent, down-home or gourmet, and they’re being adapted for all dayparts by magazines for home cooks.
Breakfast in a Bowl: Breakfast foods ranging from the savory to the sweet, combined together in a bowl for a portable, convenient, one-size-fits-all breakfast.

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students are 60% more likely than average to have dinner foodservice at a grocery store or supermarket

As part of our foodservice reports series, we’ve paid close attention to the increasing competition restaurants face from food retail prepared foods. According to Dinner Trends in U.S. Foodservice (October 2010), prepared foods are succeeding with students, who are limited-service restaurant stalwarts. Our proprietary consumer research indicates that students are 60% more likely than average to have dinner foodservice at a grocery store or supermarket, and about 40% more likely than average to have dinner at a convenience store/gas station.

So, while students may not go grocery shopping as often or spend as much there as consumers who have more established households, they clearly respond to convenience-minded offerings when they visit. We believe this provides significant opportunity for food retailers, not just because students are generally more convenience-driven but also because they are more health-conscious. As a group, students may be prone to say they want healthier fare and then make contrarian food decisions—a function of impulse, cost-considerations and the metabolic hubris of youth. But as more and more university foodservice programs have come to understand, students will embrace more healthful options if they meet cost and quality parameters—and the supermarket is optimally positioned to leverage own-branding to provide healthful fare.

But the most significant benefits may run longer-term. Having grown up during what we have coined “The Restaurant Age,” students aged 18-24 are as far removed from routine grocery shopping (and home cooking) as any generation before them. By providing prepared foods that meet their needs, food retailers not only drive a wedge between students and restaurants; they can also leverage that wedge to bring them into the home-cooking fold, by educating on meal planning and meal budgeting, or by using the prepared foods space as a bridge to introduce easy-to-cook meals that blend old-fashioned standards such as mac-and-cheese and spaghetti with new-found international and/or aspirational ingredients—for a reasonable cost, of course.More>

Chicago breakfast café opening - Atlanta Business Chronicle

Breakfast day part restaurant sales reached $37.2 billion in 2009, according to an August report from Packaged Facts, a consumer research firm in Rockville, Md.

Packaged Facts predicts breakfast sales will reach $37 billion in 2010 and $37.7 billion in 2011.

“While these figures may appear tepid at first glance, when viewed against the backdrop of lower overall restaurant sales, the breakfast day part has fared relatively well, taking share from the lunch and (especially) dinner day parts,” the report said.


Read more: Chicago breakfast café opening - Atlanta Business Chronicle
Chicago breakfast café opening - Atlanta Business Chronicle

NEW Proprietary Data: The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trends, Momentum and Migration

The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trend Momentum and Migration provides unique insights into consumers’ evolving relationship with the foodservice industry, helping restaurant operators position their brands—and menus—accordingly.

Highlights of the study include:
1) directional consumer behavioral and attitude analysis via Packaged Facts’ proprietary Consumer Restaurant Outlook Tracker, which identifies the consumers who will lead near-term foodservice growth;

2) Via its Consumer Restaurant Usage and Spend Tracker, unique analysis of meal usage by restaurant type, party size, and party spend, to help target consumers who can bring in higher guest check averages;

3) Share of Stomach sales analysis that trends foodservice sales by segment against its retail counterpart, and provides quarterly same-store comparable trends and guest traffic frequency trends for more than 50 restaurant brands by segment—all of which provide a thorough sense of where the industry is heading; and

4) current and future menu pricing strategies and detailed consumer brand affiliations, to provide competitive insight.

More Information>>

Snack and Dessert Trends

Packaged Facts forecasts a 0.7% sales decline at limited-service restaurants in 2010, the result of extremely aggressive price discounting strategies that place guest traffic growth before guest check growth (a strategy in which snacks have played a role).

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New Market Research: Fresh Convenience Foods in the U.S.

During 2008 and 2009, as the “Great Recession” took hold, many consumer product marketers and retailers acted as if the walls were closing in on them, in many cases resorting to rampant price-slashing. But not fresh convenience food marketers and retailers, who instead saw an opening. Wisely gauging their main competition as coming from the restaurant industry instead of less costly unprepared food, they continued the innovations in quality and convenience that had been underway in the market for several years, and simultaneously began aggressively competing on price with the foodservice industry in an effort to woo customers away.

According to Packaged Facts, these efforts proved successful, spurring a shift by many consumers from restaurant meals to prepared food purchased at retail outlets. As a result, the market for fresh convenience foods grew by 5.1% in 2009 to reach sales of $22.3 billion. Packaged Facts expects these marketing and merchandising efforts to continue to prove successful over the short term, driving sales of fresh convenience foods up another 28% by 2014 to $28.5 billion.

More Information>>

US low-sodium product launches soar – but consumers go for taste

Food Navigator USA, Caroline Scott-Thomas, 12-Apr-2010

The US has launched more products claiming low or no sodium than any other country in the past three years, according to a new report from Packaged Facts – but consumers still prioritize good taste.

The US Department of Agriculture has estimated that the average American gets about 4,000mg of sodium a day, well above the recommended daily maximum of 2,300mg. Excessive sodium intake has been linked to increased risk of high blood pressure, heart disease and stroke. And with an estimated 75 percent of sodium in the average US diet coming from packaged foods, industry is already under pressure to reformulate foods to contain less sodium.

However, Packaged Facts claims that reducing sodium intake is not at the top of consumers’ list of priorities for dietary change. The market research organization said that low-sodium is not as important to consumers’ healthy eating agendas as eating more fruit and vegetables, more fiber or limiting saturated fat, sugar and trans fat. Nevertheless, “if good-tasting, lower-sodium options are offered, consumers will buy them,” it said, as consumers are interested in eating healthier foods overall.

Sodium reduction poses many challenges for manufacturers, including functionality as a leavening agent or preservative, as well as consumers’ flavor preference. But there is still huge momentum in the industry to reduce sodium.

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Low- and No-Sodium Foods and Beverages in the U.S.

Value Pricing Breakfast Menus Helps Steady Daytime Restaurant Spending, Bodes Well for Future Growth

The most important meal of the day continues to face short-term challenges related to the recession, but market research publisher Packaged Facts' Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market predicts consumer spending on breakfast at restaurants will rebound from an anticipated downturn in 2010 to approach $38 billion in 2011, as current value menu pricing strategies influence future spending habits.

Fast food and QSR (quick-service restaurant) operators are playing the - price equals value - card for everything it's worth. By pushing the envelope with $1 deals, they risk enabling a pool of -extreme affordability- customers. But the upshot for breakfast is that it remains a relatively untapped daypart, so that traffic gained today may translate into additional revenue tomorrow, says Don Montuori, publisher of Packaged Facts. We believe that decisions by the likes of Denny's and Bob Evans to place everyday value for quality food at the forefront of their branding initiatives make a great deal of sense. Value pricing meets the reality of today's and tomorrow's lower-to-middle and middle-income consumers who frequent family restaurants. For breakfast, they are spinning full-service value menus and value in portion size.

Packaged Facts expects McDonald's foray into $1 breakfast menus to create pressure among other fast food/QSR players to match its lead an industry-wide trend previously glimpsed with the proliferation of non-breakfast $1 value menus. Burger King, Wendy's and Subway have already made major breakfast moves. The bottom line is that low cost resonates with restaurant breakfast users, with 31% of respondents to Packaged Facts' proprietary survey claiming they have been influenced by a maximum $3 price when selecting a restaurant for breakfast, versus 16% who placed a limit at $10.

Convenience influences consumer breakfast decisions, with convenience to work or errands, routine, and the need to get somewhere else quickly factoring in. Also relevant are breakfast menu features, such as getting a favorite menu item, wide variety, and healthy menu items. And, because more than half of U.S. adults drink coffee, restaurants have created value bundles that offer coffee with breakfast food to increase foot traffic.

Even though restaurant sales fell during the recession and initial recovery, breakfast has fared relatively well and has taken market share away from both the lunch and dinner dayparts. Packaged Facts found that only 34% of restaurant goers had eaten breakfast at a restaurant in the past month and an even smaller percentage of the general population said the same, which means the industry has an opportunity to woo the more than 150 million adult consumers who do not use restaurant breakfast.

Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market provides unique insights into consumers' evolving relationship with the breakfast daypart, helping restaurant operators position their brands and menus for consumers in 2010 and beyond. Highlights of the study include directional consumer behavioral and attitude analysis via Packaged Facts' proprietary Consumer Restaurant Outlook Tracker; proprietary analysis of average meal spend by restaurant type and by daypart, with a focus on the breakfast daypart, to help target consumers who can bring in higher guest check averages; restaurant and menu selection analysis, driven by Packaged Facts' proprietary consumer survey results; and much more.

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